2011-09-06

Analytical paper: Israel and the recognition of Palestine

The coming attempt of the Palestine Authority to push the Palestine recognition during the UN General Assembly in mid September may lead to the unprecedented shift in the region amid the current instability in Syria and transformation period in Egypt.Though both main players Israel and its ally USA expressed their opinion on the Palestinians' plans as being premature, the Fatah's political establishment has been at pains last half of the year to gain international support therewith scoring by the demonstrative reconciliation with its political rival Hamas. Despite the fact that there are modest chances for the positive outcome for Palestine, it is nevertheless worth examining the Israeli factor in the coming recognition declaration due to importance of its stance towards the Palestinian side and its reaction on the possible developments on its borders.

First of all, it is necessary to take into account the changed environment when we talk about the possible Palestinian recognition and Israel's reaction on it. The continuing suppression in Syria may turn into the cause for the clashes in neighborhood Lebanon, where the Hizbullah feels more and more insecure and where the pressure of the moderate political forces in the government increases significantly, thus contributing to the instability in domestic politics.

In Egypt, after the fall of the Mubarak's regime the voices for the revision of the agreements with Israel are becoming louder with the main advocate of this revisionist policy Muslim Brotherhood gaining more and more chances to be the leading political force in the coming government. Though the army-backed transitional governments have already pledged the peaceful transformation, military is today the only power that is actually making decisions and much is up to their stance. Moreover, the long lasting cooperation with Turkey was doomed to deterioration after the hard-liners in Israel had indicated their principal refusal to concede though symbolically in the Mavi Marmara case.

The current misfortunes and challenges in the Israeli foreign policy may been regarded as the result of the passive stance towards the resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the post-Ehud Barak governments. The lack of will to be active is in turn to be seen as the core stone in the today's ideological right camp in the Israel's political landscape. Depending on the participation of the ultra-orthodox elements and seeking the approval of the considerably influential conservative electorate the Netanyahu's government is forced to be tough and uncompromising in the dealing with the Palestinian side on the settlements and borders.

Needless to say, that the Israel's policy of disengagement contributed considerably to the loss of the Fatah's support in the West Bank, whereas its counterpart, the Islamist Hamas has successfully proved its popularity in the Gaza despite the blockade and what is more important its capability to control the territory. So, Israel finds itself in rather delicate situation when it faces the united Palestinian side, which Israelis wanted for so long to negotiate with, but with the Islamist, who deny the Israel's right to existence, playing the leading role.
Domestically, the right-of-centre coalition showed it reluctance to the social-economic challenges thus forcing the broad masses to go on the demonstrations and demand more attention to the internal problems rather than external.

Whatever the result of the mid-September UN General Assembly, the reaction of the Israeli government on the possible development of the events can define the further evolution of the conflict. The third Intifada definitely can not bring the benefits none of the sides, rather it can repeat the destructive aftereffects in Israel and more significantly in the Palestine territories. The rationalistic stance of Israel can in contrast contribute positively to the stalemated talks, but seeing the harsh signals, made by the Netanyahu's government, and its hawkish stance make it almost impossible to hope for the better future.  

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