2019-01-15

Conflict of Belarus with Russia caused interest from Turkey

by Alexander Alesin

Turkey may see Belarus as a springboard for penetrating into the region of Eastern Europe. On January 15, Lukashenko met with the Minister of National Defense of Turkey Hulusi Akar. Lukashenko rarely condescends to receive ordinary ministers. It is felt that the visit of Hulusi Akara is special. Moreover, the Minister conveyed the invitation of Recep Erdogan to visit Turkey: "The President of the Republic of Turkey is waiting for you in the very near future." Why such a hurry to visit? What interested Belarus a Turkish leader? About this - the conversation of the "Belarusian partisan" with military commentator Alexander Alesin .

What might interest Turkey

Turkey is our old partner in the military-technical sphere. About 10 years ago Belarus supplied about 300 tank trucks to Turkey. Initially, Turkey ordered about a thousand pieces of equipment, but the funds intended for the purchase of equipment went to eliminate the consequences of the earthquake. 

And now, when the video shows the movement of the Turkish army in the direction of the Kurdish formations, on the vehicle you can read the inscription “Volat” - powerful four-axle tank trucks, tractors with trailers. Naturally, they are equipped with Western-style engines. 

Turkey needs to resist the moving partisan (or semi-partisan) Kurdish formations, for which it is necessary to quickly transfer armored vehicles and tanks. However, technology has a limited resource, so tank cars are used to extend its “longevity”. I think Turkey might need additional batches of tankers, especially since they are talking about a big Turkish operation against the Kurds. MZKT is unlikely to have time to put the equipment to the beginning of the operation, but perhaps it is about the delivery of components, spare parts for it (warranty periods have already expired). 

Recently, Turkey has also been paying a lot of attention to the creation of air and missile defense: S-400 complexes have been purchased, negotiations are underway with the United States on the purchase of Patriot complexes. But there is a new danger - unmanned aerial devices (airplanes, helicopters, cruise missiles). Azerbaijan, Turkey’s closest ally, has purchased from Belarus the Grozs-S electronic warfare tools designed to suppress drones; Azerbaijan has bought Turkish drones and Belarusian means of fighting them. Turkey could see the Belarusian equipment in action and order itself. 

The predecessors of this technology have proven themselves very well in Iran: in 2011, with the help of Belarusian equipment, American drones were planted, and so carefully that they managed to open the devices, electronics, software and even build copies. I do not rule out that Turkey is interested in Belarusian developments in the field of electronic warfare (not only the fight against drones).

One of the latest Belarusian achievements is the creation of three-coordinate radar stations that can operate from several ranges at once: centimeter, decimeter, meter. Conventional radars operate in the same range, which allows you to create effective means of dealing with them. Our radar is able to rebuild on the move and work at different frequencies, and in an unpredictable mode - it is very difficult to drown out such a station. Radar can detect various kinds of objects and can operate in various combat modes. 

In addition, we also have achievements in the field of secure radio communications, in the field of cryptography, which make it possible to ensure the secrecy of radio communications.  Considering that Turkey itself is going to produce tanks, it is possible that she will be interested in the products of our "Pelenga" devices. All these assumptions, but the most likely interest for Turkey is the products of MWTP.

Why Lukashenka is so urgently invited to Turkey

Perhaps Belarus has embarked on reducing dependence on Russia. It is possible that Turkey wants to use Belarus as a platform for economic penetration into Eastern Europe. Now there are significant restrictions on the part of the Russian Federation on the supply of a number of Turkish goods to Belarus.

The case may concern regional issues, first of all, Karabakh, in which Turkey is tied up through Azerbaijan: it arms and supports diplomatically. They may be looking for a solution to the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh.  Since question with a visit is acute, it means that it concerns political issues: economic and military-technical problems require a long study.

Perhaps Belarus will open niches for Turkey where we have not been allowed before. It is possible to create Turkish industries in Belarus in order to supply these products to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. If the degree of localization reaches the level that the goods will be recognized as originating from Belarus, then the obstacles for deliveries of this goods to Russia will be removed. This may concern processing enterprises, the textile industry: perhaps Turkish capital may want to participate in the fate of our enterprises: Kamvol, Sukno. .

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